How will 2/3 of this market's traders bet?
28
32
570
resolved Feb 22
Resolved
YES

At market close, if at least 2/3 (rounded down) of all traders who own at least one share own YES shares, this resolves YES. If at least 2/3 hold NO, it resolves NO. Otherwise it resolves to 50%.

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predicted YES

@IsaacKing can you resolve this?

predicted NO

16/25, should resolve 50% I think

@PatMyron 2/3 of 25 rounded down is 16, so why shouldn't this resolve YES?

@PatMyron Just confirming I haven't messed up somewhere and you agree with a YES resolution?

predicted YES

@IsaacKing just resolve yes so i can get my 1 M. You didn't mess up

predicted NO

why round down? You said at least 2/3, which is not the case

predicted YES

@PatMyron 2/3 of people rounded down to a whole person. ie 23.8 -> 23

predicted NO

Guess it's in the description for the YES side now. It seems weirdly nuanced to specify rounding that down for the YES side but not specify that for the NO side. Description gotchas are another reason I'll stop using Manifold soon, but this market should resolve yes based on the current description

@PatMyron That's been there for a long time, I didn't just edit it. And I think it's pretty clear that it applies to the NO side as well.

predicted YES

Remember that if you buy tons of YES just before the close data, you can earn tons of mana by making the market resolve YES.

predicted NO

@tailcalled No, it's number of traders not number of shares

bought Ṁ10 of NO

Right now this market would resolve to 50% and it's above 50%, so it makes sense for new traders to buy NO

I wonder what the results would be if you reversed the phrasing. "...will not bet". It might confuse the current Schelling point of yes.

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