Will any Rational Animations video released in 2023 or late 2022 have over 2 million views by the end of 2024?


Any video released from Nov 18, 2022 to December 31 2023 qualifies.

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Been keeping track of the video for a while.


1 year to go from 800k to 2 million views. (Needs to average 3k per day).

8 Nov 23: 805k views

9 Nov 23: 810k views

10 Nov 23: 816k views (posted 120 days ago= 7k views per day on average)

14 Nov 23: 833k (4k per day since 10th)

15 Nov 23: 837k

16 Nov 23: 843k (3.5k per day to reach 1m by end of year)

17 nov 23: 849k

18 nov 23: 855k

20 Nov 23: 866

21 Nov 23: 869

22 Nov 23: 872

25 Nov 23: 893 (~4k per day) (2.9k to reach 1m by end of year)

26 Nov 23: 905

28 Nov 23: 917 (6k per day)

30 Nov 23: 927 (10k per day)

5 Dec 23: 956 (6k per day)

9 Dec 23: 976 (5k per day)

11 Dec 23: 986 (3k per day)

18 Dec 23: 1016 (4k per day)

21 Dec 23: 1027 (3k per day)

31 Dec 23: 1059 (3k per day)

9 Jan 24: 1088 (3k per day)

Needs to average 2.6k per day to get 2 mill by end of 2024

20 Jan 24: 1131 (4k per day)

5 feb 24: 1188 (3.5k per day)

11 Feb 24: 1203 (2.5k per day)

24 Feb 24: 1249 (3.5k per day)

bought Ṁ50 NO from 49% to 47%
predicts YES
2 traders bought Ṁ200 YES
predicts NO

The condition has been met with many more than 5 videos released, so I've edited the title to be simpler.

As of right now, the most-viewed qualifying video is The Goddess of Everything Else, with 980,000 views.

bought Ṁ10 NO at 54%

The YES limit orders are to try to sell some because I'll be donating most of my mana before year end, not because of any particular market opinion.

predicts NO

@NamesAreHard 🥲

it's been an honor

btw if you became less active or left for any particular reason it'd be cool to get manifold feedback about it!

Highly underpriced. If you disagree, please fill my limit orders, I left plenty of them

predicts NO

poor guy

Lets hope he doesn't get super motivated and makes a really good video.

Hahahaha they just came out with a new video today:

@Writer Nice. Video. The animations are so cute.

Why is it that I am the person with the 10 most No shares, others have far more than me, but I bet it down to 50% while the others did not

predicts NO

@Timothy the big no holders were buying NO while the yes holders had a big limit order in place, so their bets didn't move the market price

predicts NO

@Timothy There were no YES limit orders, it's just that we were waiting for Writer to buy into our NO limit orders at 90%+ and that's how we accumulated our positions.

@NamesAreHard I wish I found this market sooner, lol

predicts NO

@NamesAreHard that makes sense. I knew there were limit orders involved but didn't check the bet history to confirm whose they were

Am I misunderstanding the market? How come it's so high? As far as I can tell the candidate video with the most views has 447k views at the moment. Does the market believe there's a >90% chance that one of those videos will get >1.5M new views before the end of 2024?

predicts NO

@BraulioValdivielsoMartine Hmm, the owner of the YouTube channel seems to be the only major Yes holder.

predicts NO

@BraulioValdivielsoMartine they might release another video before end of 2023 that goes viral in a big way, or one of the existing videos might make the rounds. I've been on no, but not certain enough about the chances to bet it far down

predicts NO

@braulios The owner of the channel seemed happy to buy YES at any probability, so there was no reason to bet it down anywhere close to the actual probability when we could get cheap NO shares at 85%+ :)

predicts NO

With the recent release of "The Goddess of Everything Else", it seems we have now met the five video threshold: This market seems to have been made on Nov 18, 2022 and "Could a single alien message destroy us?" came out on Nov 24th, 2022.

Why is this tagged Non-Predictive Profits?

predicts NO

@jcb No idea. Removed.

predicts NO

Rational Animations has now released 5 videos since Nov 18, so this market will not resolve N/A.

I have no idea. Therefore, I'll bet all my remaining mana.

@Writer Have you made a video on Kelly betting yet? ;)

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