In this market, someone sent me a message via my Admonymous form, and asked me in very strong terms to not reveal the exact contents. I found this rather funny, as one of the things they linked to in their message was when Scott Alexander made a similar request to someone they didn't know very well, and that person decided to plaster the information all over Twitter.

I take my committments serously, but having never committed to keep the information private, I wouldn't consider it dishonorable for me to share it.

It would however be rather rude, and likely reduce the chance that people share such information with me in the future. I value being seen as trustworthy, and while sharing this information wouldn't violate my personal moral code, it would certainly violate other people's and make myself less trusted in their community.

(It's often inconvenient to get an explicit confirmation of "yes I'll keep this private" every time, so it's much easier to simply be able to trust that such a request will be honored. I've done similar things myself in messages to aquaintances.)

This market resolves to YES if someone points out an instance where someone asked me to keep something private, I did not agree to their request, and I later shared the information, either by choice or by forgetfulness. Otherwise it resolves NO at the beginning of 2026.

This only includes instances where it seems like the probability people assign to me sharing their information would significantly affect the chance I was given the information. If a mentally ill person comes up to me on the street, tells me they're going to kill someone, and then says "shhh, don't tell anyone" and wanders away, I would not resolve this market to YES if I went and told the police.

I will not bet in this market.