MANIFOLD
Trump vs. Harris: If the US Presidential Election were held today, who would win?
20
Ṁ100Ṁ2.6k
resolved Feb 2
100%69%
Kamala Harris
31%
Donald Trump

Market Overview: This market is a community poll regarding a hypothetical 2026 US Presidential matchup between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.

Resolution Criteria:

Final Vote Count: This market will resolve based ONLY on the final number of votes (total poll count) recorded on this platform at the time of closing.

Closing Date: The market will officially close on February 1, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.

The Winner: Whichever candidate has the higher number of votes at the exact moment of closing will be declared the winner.

Ties: In the event of an exact numerical tie in votes, the market will resolve 50/50 between both options.

Nature of the Bet: This is a subjective sentiment poll. It does not reflect official US government election results or actual voting outside of this platform.

Place your bets on who you think will lead the poll by February 1st!

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@mods, I am the creator of this market. I am writing to report a technical error in my resolution.

After re-checking the final closing data and the market rules, it is clear that Kamala Harris was leading in market percentage at the moment of closing and should have been declared the winner. I mistakenly resolved the market for Trump due to a miscalculation and a misunderstanding of the final data points.

This was a genuine human error, and I sincerely apologize for the confusion and frustration caused to the traders. I want to make this right—could you please help me reverse or correct the resolution to Kamala Harris based on the clear market rules? Thank you for your help.

@IrmiPolonsky By which count was Trump higher?

@Simon74fe by the count that his alts bet yes? There was 16 holders on Kamala only 4 on Trump (3/4 his alts too).

Or run a poll.

@mods the market creator is abusing alts. And missresolving markets in their favour.

@Jack1 Sorry for the mess-up, it was a genuine mistake on my end. I'm already in touch with the mods to get this resolved for Harris as per the rules. Thanks for your patience.

@Simon74fe Sorry for the mess-up, it was a genuine mistake on my end. I'm already in touch with the mods to get this resolved for Harris as per the rules. Thanks for your patience.

@IrmiPolonsky Harris had a higher percentage at market close and there were more Harris shares among market holders. So per these rules why didn't it resolve Harris?

@IrmiPolonsky unresolved

I don't think the incentives here align with the information you wish to gain. People are going to trade to win mana, not to which side they truly believe in.

Could you please clarify what a vote is? I know you wrote "(total poll count)" but I don't know what that is.

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