Which of the effects is the strongest?
League Rewards: Do temporary incentives to move probability in your markets, pumping "your" markets to win league rewards, significantly skew probabilities?
Risk of N/A Outcomes: Does the potential for a market to be declared N/A (where some authors are more likely to do so) discourage meaningful arbitrage and distort prices?
Discount Rate for Time: People are less willing to engage in far future markets due to the time value of money, thereby distorting long-term market probabilities. Is this very significant, or do loans sufficiently surpress it?
Speculative Nature of Far Future Markets: Are markets resolving in the far future more based on opinion than information, especially absent a close resolution date, leading to skewed probabilities?
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