This market will resolve to the first month when Blackwell GPUs (B100, B200, etc) are available to rent by the hour online. For example, if B100s are listed on Lambda Labs for $4/hr on March 3, I will resolve "March 2025" to "yes" and all other options to "no."
For example, this would have resolved May 2023 for Hopper (https://lambdalabs.com/blog/lambda-cloud-deploys-nvidia-h100-tensor-core-gpus).
Monthly contracts don't count.
It's fine if the GPUs are listed but consistently sold out, as long as it seems that some normal consumers (excluding special early access, insiders, etc) are using them.
The provider should be a serious GPU cloud (Vast, Runpod, Lambda, AWS, etc.); novelty deployments don't count.
Since the resolution criteria are somewhat subjective, I will not trade this market.
Clarifications:
Only datacenter GPUs count; 5090s and other consumer-grade Blackwell chips don't count.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ101 | |
| 2 | Ṁ0 |
Saw a B200 billboard on 101 today. There are a lot of AI clouds that say “B200s available, talk to sales” which I think means they have a couple racks but don’t have real capacity
This press release says Lambda has on demand too https://www.edgeir.com/lambda-launches-on-demand-nvidia-hgx-b200-clusters-for-edge-ai-acceleration-20250328
@ahalekelly Nice find. I made an account and there is availabilty, so will resolve this to March 2025.
Ming Chi Kuo estimates 150,000–200,000 Nvidia B200 units in 4Q24 and 500,000–550,000 units in Q1 2025, with Microsoft being by far the largest buyer.
Also sounds like Microsoft is going for GB200, Nvidia’s integrated GPU and ARM CPU platform.
The advanced design requirements [due to increased power consumption] for the GB200 have raised concerns over potential delays in component availability and system shipments. TrendForce reports that the production of Blackwell GPU chips is progressing largely as expected, with only limited shipments in 4Q24.
Production volume is anticipated to ramp up gradually from 1Q25 onward. However, as components of the AI server system are still undergoing supply chain adjustments, 2024 year-end shipments are expected to fall short of industry expectations. Consequently, TrendForce forecasts that the peak shipment period for the GB200 full-rack system will be postponed to between Q2 and Q3 of 2025.
https://www.trendforce.com/presscenter/news/20241217-12412.html