Extending market deadline to May 31 (which is apparently an upper bound for when the waitlist is decided a la reddit).

@Incompleteusern are you having too much fun watching the betting

@jatloe are you having too much fun donating money

@E142 no im having a lot of fun getting free mana

I don't understand why this is so high. Or why there is 14k mana invested in a 100 mana market. Jatloe, I guess.

@DylanRichardson I have my reasons.

@DylanRichardson because people like trading in this market

@jatloe r u insane

@vi if thats what makes you bet more 20% NO then yes :3

@jatloe I am so confused. Are you an MIT AO or something? Are you trying to build up this guy's hopes and dreams to inevitably be crushed? Do you feel like losing mana?

Tempted to make a "will I get off the JHU waitlist" market inspired by this but the odds are so close to zero that it would be useless lol

@ICanShowYouPeru good luck!!

@Incompleteusern Thank you!

Every time I see this market, I bet some YES.

@jatloe free mana on no

What stats do you have?

@2ndPairofBoots 1550 SAT 36 ACT

@Incompleteusern ECs?

Those with opinions on P(I get accepted to MIT | waitlist is nontrivial) may be interested in https://manifold.markets/Incompleteusern/will-mit-accept-anyone-from-their-2, as I think one can compute this quantity by dividing the two relevant probabilities.

Will MIT accept anyone from their 2026 waitlist?

60% chance.

Someone should bet no on this market. We should be keeping in mind the MIT waitlist acceptance rate is 2% and sometimes they just accept no one. This market is clearly too high.

@Incompleteusern however, rooimo

I'm trying to gradually take out all of my stock in this market

rooimo

@vincentWang stoppy

Waitlisted ...

@Incompleteusern I assume you resolve yes if you (on the off chance) get off the waitlist?

EDIT: nvm I just read the description