How many more minutes after 10pm will I stay up this week than @Conflux?
resolved Jan 27

See @Conflux's market ( for more details. Basically, for tonight (Monday night) through Thursday night, how many more minutes will I stay up past 10pm than Jacob (@Conflux).

This market resolves to my answer to my answer minus the answer to Jacob's market (not counting Sunday, for which he did not stay up any minutes past ten).

I have a very bad sleep schedule but I have a reasonable track record for following through with markets. I think 10 is a bit ambitious for me, but 10:30 could be doable.

(I am counting "time in bed" as "time not staying up" unless I'm egregiously wasting time not sleeping on purpose.)

Current number of minutes more than Jacob: 97

Time in bed:

Monday: 10:35 (this is the earliest I've gone to bed on a regular day for some time)

Tuesday: 10:16

Wednesday: 10:45

Thursday: 10:25

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predicted LOWER

One dollar of profit? This is a scam

predicted LOWER

@CarletonImbens Should have bet "higher" and then bugged @Imbens near bedtime with fun questions

predicted LOWER

@CarletonImbens That was my plan to do to Jacob, but then I realized that I'd have to stay up to do it

predicted LOWER

@CarletonImbens And yeah that's how it is sometimes it's a scam

predicted LOWER

@CarletonImbens Also, you've still got a chance. Check out the other bedtime markets for more fun predicting

bought Ṁ20 of HIGHER

“Recently I’ve been shooting for 10:30 and the best I’ve done is 11:30” -Imbens

bought Ṁ100 of LOWER

@Conflux Now you’re publicizing private text messages? You’re taking the publicity aspect of Celebrity Crush too far.

predicted HIGHER

@Imbens "[This comment]'s not even very clever because I’m too tired to think very clearly" -Imbens

predicted LOWER

@Conflux “A single feather cannot break the bird” -Conflux