Resolution criteria

• Resolve YES if Tarique Rahman (also known natively as “Tarique/Tareq/Tariq Zia”) is credibly reported to have physically arrived in Bangladesh before 00:00 BST (UTC+6) on January 1, 2026. Acceptable evidence: reports by at least two reputable outlets (e.g., Reuters, AP, The Daily Star, Prothom Alo) or an official government/BNP confirmation corroborated by one major outlet. (reuters.com, apnews.com, thedailystar.net, en.prothomalo.com)

• “Arrived” means entry into Bangladeshi territory via any legal port of entry (air, land, or sea). Virtual appearances or travel rumors don’t count; a diverted landing outside Bangladesh doesn’t count. If reports initially conflict, resolve based on the best-supported consensus within 72 hours of the claimed arrival.

Background

• The person referred to as “Tarique Zia” is widely known as Tarique Rahman, BNP’s acting chairman; He has lived in London since 2008. (en.wikipedia.org)

• Major cases against him and his mother Khaleda Zia were overturned in late 2024–early 2025, and officials have stated there is no legal barrier to his return. (apnews.com, reuters.com, en.prothomalo.com, thedailystar.net)

• As of mid‑2025 he remained abroad, addressing rallies virtually; Yunus (interim CA) met him in London in June 2025 amid talks pointing to a February 2026 election window. (en.prothomalo.com, thedailystar.net, reuters.com)

Considerations

• Time zone: cutoff is 00:00 on January 1, 2026 in Bangladesh Standard Time (UTC+6).

• Identity clarity: this market tracks Tarique Rahman (aka “Tarique/Tareq/Tariq Zia”), not any other person named “Tarek Zia.” (en.wikipedia.org)

• Security/political conditions have influenced prior return timelines; absence of a legal barrier does not guarantee return. (dhakatribune.com)

  Resolution criteria

  • Resolves YES if Tarique Rahman (also known as “Tarique/Tareq/Tariq Zia”) is credibly reported to have physically arrived in Bangladesh before 00:00 on January 1, 2026, Bangladesh Standard Time (UTC+6). “Arrived” means entry into Bangladeshi territory via a legal port of entry (air, land, or sea). Virtual appearances or rumors don’t count; a diverted landing outside Bangladesh does not count.
    Acceptable evidence: reports by at least two reputable outlets (e.g., Reuters, AP, The Daily Star, Prothom Alo) or an official government/BNP confirmation corroborated by one major outlet. (reuters.com, apnews.com, images.thedailystar.net, en.prothomalo.com)

  • If initial reports conflict, resolve based on the best‑supported consensus within 72 hours of the claimed arrival.

  Background

  • The person referred to here is BNP acting chairman Tarique Rahman, commonly called “Tarique Zia,” who has lived in London since 2008. (en.wikipedia.org)

  • Bangladesh’s home affairs adviser stated in June 2025 that there is no legal barrier to his return. Local outlets repeated the point the same week. (en.prothomalo.com, images.thedailystar.net)

  • On June 13, 2025, interim chief adviser Muhammad Yunus met Tarique in London; Reuters reported the meeting alongside signals of a February 2026 election window. (thedailystar.net, reuters.com)

  • As of mid‑2025, Tarique continued to address BNP events virtually rather than in person. (thedailystar.net)

  Considerations

  • Time zone: cutoff is 00:00 January 1, 2026 in Bangladesh Standard Time (UTC+6).

  • Identity: this market tracks Tarique Rahman (aka “Tarique/Tareq/Tariq Zia”), son of Khaleda Zia—not any other person named “Tarek Zia.” (en.wikipedia.org)

  • Political/security conditions and logistics may affect timing despite the absence of a formal legal barrier. (en.prothomalo.com)