Ok seems like the data is released, but would probably be a nightmare to analyze

@BoltonBailey I will wait until I can get an answer from somebody, maybe the CES discord.

Please resolve.

@SG Looks like the data still hasn't been released

@SG I said I would resolve NA if no ballot data by the end of the year, looks like that might happen.

I don't have the math on hand but fairly clear at this point that Peltola was the Condorcet winner. 48.8% of the first round and 55% post tabulation

@SemioticRivalry Vote data?

Looking back at the dataset in this comment https://manifold.markets/Ibozz91/will-the-2022-alaska-house-election#L2BbwbfXyidYIEhNbjbq and rescaling all the vote shares according to the ratio of first-round votes for the current election against that candidate's first-round votes in the special election, I get approximately 130K voters preferring Peltola to Begich, and 100K voters preferring Begich to Peltola.

@BoltonBailey I’ll wait until exact vote data releases.

In an election with three candidates, if voters have one-dimensional preferences, then the only way for the Condorcet winner to not be the IRV choice is for the middle candidate to be the Condorcet winner and for them to be eliminated in the first round. I'm pretty sure the middle candidate is Begich - 538 gives Begich 18% to win, and Peltola 35% to win a majority, so I think the chance of Condorcet failure is less than 47%.