🏅 Top traders

https://cdn.openai.com/o3-mini-system-card.pdf

@ian Bad summaries

@bagelfan excited to see how o3 mini does with these! Or should try out r1

@bagelfan looking good with o3-mini! https://dev.manifold.markets/IanPhilip/when-will-o3mini-come-out-exact-day?play=true

@ian There should be an option for a creator to not have the creator symbol on a comment they make. Pretty clearly, @bagelfan was speaking as a trader when he said "Looking at the release dates available from https://openai.com/, OpenAI doesn't release products on Fridays", he wasn't making a pronouncement as the creator.

@DanielTilkin i think people understood that, and now o3 does too

@summer_of_bliss Care to explain your trade?

Looking at the release dates available from https://openai.com/, OpenAI doesn't release products on Fridays

@bagelfan

@bagelfan i mean i have no clue and was partially hedging my no position on the other market but:

https://x.com/apples_jimmy/status/1885104983148028235?s=46

@summer_of_bliss @Bayesian Seems pretty worrying 😰

I'm not worried enough to sell though:

• Chris Lehane typically does not announce new models

• He said o3 rather than o3-mini

• The release would be on a Friday

• The interview was about something else and Lehane mentioned it while going off a tangent

@bagelfan yeah broadly my take is

pro release tomorrow:

• openai claimed a january release in december

• altman claimed “~2 weeks” on jan 17th

• lehane off-the-cuff friday comment

• adamgpt two days ago claiming it was coming “soon(tm)”

• chatgpt think feature showing o3-mini option in html

• possibly expedited with deepseek drama

anti release tomorrow

• “~2 weeks” ≠ “2 weeks”, deliberate wiggle room

• priors on planning fallacy

• priors on ai company release delays

• friday release unusual

• lehane said “o3” not “o3 mini” which is unlikely, imprecise speaking

Wonder how much deepseek is making them accelerate their release schedule haha

Maybe next Tuesday? That's the 28th

They are hyping o3-mini so hard lol

@MalachiteEagle Bet it up then!

@ian Another bad AI summary

This feature is not at all useful for me and I hope you reconsider allowing an opt-out.

fill me fill me

@MingCat wanna bet more on jan30? I think there's decent chance on that date, maybe 10-20%

and maybe 5-15% on jan 31. still can't decide if it's much more than that or those are decent ranges

@Bayesian Don't think so, I'm mostly just keeping what I have as a hedge