@Chris: yes, although Maine Secretary of State Bellows wrote (according to Politico) that she would "pause her own decision to strike Trump from the ballot in the state pending an appeal to the state judiciary." so my comment below applies.

maine just today https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/28/maine-kicks-trump-off-ballot-under-14th-amendment-00133294

What "ballot" does this refer to? If he is somehow barred from the primary ballot but not presidential ballot, how will this resolve?

@IanMuirhead Does it count if its overturned?

@Joshua The court has actually stayed its ruling until Jan. 4th - if it is stayed further until it's overturned, one could argue he's never been removed at all

@Marnix To mint’s point, the question refers to the 14th Amendment and so if that Amendment is the basis for a decision that ultimately bars him from any ballot, primary or Election Day, then the bet would win. Therefore I would agree with Joshua that if the Colorado decision is overturned, or if the stay remains in place, and Trump’s name is on the primary ballot then, at least in Colorado, the test would fail and the bet would win only if Trump’s name is barred from the primary ballot in at least one other state or from Election Day ballot as a result of a judicial decision based on the 14th Amendment.