For how many days will the jury deliberate in People v. Donald Trump (the New York criminal case)?
Basic
94
24k
resolved May 30
Resolved
NO
One (jury returns a verdict the same day deliberations began, 5/29)
Resolved
NO
Three
Resolved
NO
Five
Resolved
NO
Four
Resolved
NO
Six or more
Resolved
YES
Two

Only days in which the jury is deliberating will be counted, so weekends will not count if the jury takes them off.

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@mods I jumped the gun based on journalists reporting that the jury would be dismissed; can you help me unresolve the "Two" answer?

bought Ṁ200 Three NO

@Kolyin I'm not sure the ping worked. Try @mods

Hmmm

ok it worked the other way

Two

Isn't this the correct answer?

KolyinsoldṀ109Three YES

@Snarflak No, for the same reason Day One closed as "no" yesterday; the jury will have deliberated for more than two days when it concludes.

sold Ṁ17 Three NO

@Kolyin But this is the second day and they made the decision...

@Snarflak "One (jury returns a verdict the same day deliberations began, 5/29)" would imply "Two (jury returns a verdict the second day, 5/30)"

@Snarflak You are correct. I was working off of the reports of journalists on the scene, who misreported the jury would be dismissed. I've asked the mods to unresolve the "Two" answer. Thank you!

sold Ṁ55 Three NO

makes sense! i saw the misreports too. very confusing

bought Ṁ250 Three NO

@Kolyin I've bought and sold Three multiple times in the past few minutes. 🤦‍♂️ So confused.

@Snarflak Lost -304 because of this 😒

@Snarflak I am sincerely sorry. As per the tweet I quoted, journalists on the scene reported that the judge announced he'd be dismissing the jury for the day, which means no verdict. Apparently the jury then told the judge they'd reached a verdict.

I had no particular need to resolve the market as quickly as I did, but I did so on the basis of what would normally be a very reliable indicator that it was done for the day.

sold Ṁ484 Three NO

@Kolyin 34 sec ago

JUST IN: Jury in Donald Trump’s hush money case has reached a verdict, asks for additional 30 minutes to fill out form

You can create markets so that the options add to 100%. Presumably this isn't a market where you want to resolve it with multiple options being true, right?

@MaybeNotDepends thanks, this is my first time doing such a question. I'm obtuse, what's the benefit of doing it that way?

@Kolyin you get effectively less liquidity this way, because some of it is used up just to move each option to 100%/6 from 50%. Less liquidity makes it less appealing for early traders.

In this case, that was me, I bet them all down 50%>28%, which is basically a risk-free 40% for me. If you want, I'll cash those back out and put it into a subsidy for this market.

@robm Thanks for the explanation and the offer, but no need--seems like a reasonable reward for policing an inefficiency in the market.

@Kolyin Also FWIW, while dependent MC has an advantage in liquidity (and sure is probably better suited to this), some people prefer independent MC in cases like this anyways so that you can resolve individual days early

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