Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, prior to December 1, 2026 (11:59 PM UTC), the Riemann Hypothesis is officially recognized as solved. Official recognition is defined as either:

1. The Clay Mathematics Institute officially verifying a proof and/or announcing the awarding of the Millennium Prize for the problem.

2. A broad, undisputed consensus among leading number theorists and major mathematical bodies confirming that a published proof (or counterexample disproving the hypothesis) is valid and complete.

3. A proof or disproof of the Riemann Hypothesis in Lean.

If a proposed proof or counterexample is published or circulated on arXiv, in preprints, or submitted to a peer-reviewed journal before the cutoff date, but has not yet achieved widespread verification or an official announcement from the Clay Mathematics Institute by December 1, 2026, the market resolves to NO.

Background

Formulated by Bernhard Riemann in 1859, the Riemann Hypothesis posits that all non-trivial zeros of the Riemann zeta function have a real part equal to 1/2. It is considered one of the most important open problems in pure mathematics due to its deep implications for the distribution of prime numbers.

In 2000, the Clay Mathematics Institute designated it as one of the seven Millennium Prize Problems, offering a $1 million prize for a correct solution. Under CMI rules, a proposed solution must be published in a qualifying refereed mathematics journal and undergo a minimum two-year period of scrutiny by the mathematical community before the CMI Scientific Advisory Board considers it for formal recognition.

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