HoraceHe avatar
Horace He
resolved Jan 24
Will any of these 7 movies *not* be nominated for Best Picture at the 2023 Oscars? Everything Everywhere All At Once, The Fabelmans, The Banshees of Inisherin, Top Gun: Maverick, TAR, Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis

Will resolve on January 24th, when the Oscar Nominations are revealed.

Close date updated to 2023-01-24 5:53 am

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josh avatar
Joshbought Ṁ80 of NO
jack avatar
Jackbought Ṁ100 of NO


The first five each year are usually easy to pick: Only once in the era of the expanded Best Picture field has a movie nominated for the Directors Guild’s feature-film prize not gone on to compete for the Oscar. This year’s quintet are The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, and Top Gun: Maverick, so that’s your top tier right there.

The next two are sitting quite comfortably in the lineup. Avatar: The Way of Water and Elvis both made impressive amounts of money, and both earned top nominations from precursors like the Golden Globes and the Producers Guild of America.

The last three spots are in flux.

This market is about the same top 7 that Vulture has as comfortable picks, would be surprising if they weren't nominated.

https://ew.com/awards/2023-oscar-nomination-predictions/ has the exact same top 7:

HoraceHe avatar
Horace Hepredicted NO

@jack Yeah I was pretty surprised how many people were betting against me :)

Adam avatar
Adampredicted YES

@HoraceHe 3:1 seemed like fine odds to me for 7 highly-likely-but-negatively-correlated events like this.

HoraceHe avatar
Horace Hepredicted NO

@Adam I bought most of my No when it was around 1:1. That being said, I think the degree to which many of these were likely made it even lower than 3:1. I’d estimate true odds at maybe 10%, with Avatar making up 9 of those 10%.