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MANIFOLD
Do I (Holly Elmore) currently have COVID?
82
Ṁ1.1kṀ7.5k
resolved Jan 22
Resolved
NO

I have a sore throat. My husband tested positive for COVID two days ago while I was away on a trip. My travel was delayed two days, most of which I spent in crowded airports. The sore throat emerged the day after my return, after being exposed to my COVID+ husband. I tested positive for COVID in October 2023. A few weeks before that I had a cold that tested negative for COVID. I had flu (clinical diagnosis based on symptoms and recent COVID) in November. I was boosted with the Moderna spikevax two weeks ago.

Will I test positive for COVID using a home rapid test in the next 6 days? Resolves "Yes" with a positive test and "No" with 5 more negative tests. (Note this means that acquiring COVID from my husband within the 6 days and testing positive would count.)

Day 1 rapid test: negative

Day 2 rapid test: negative

Day 3 rapid test: negative

Day 4 rapid test: negative

Day 5 rapid test: negative

Day 6 rapid test: forgot to take 😬, but symptoms continue to improve

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The power of vaccines

getting that thing down the nose instead of throat can improve sensitivity (iirc) but after 5 days of negs, you can probably rule out covid. Just a small risk you also get Covid now or a test has a false-positive.

Day 5 test negative

Please change resolution criteria to a different type of test, rapid antigen tests are reasonably likely to still be psyops.

predictedNO
Going Crazy GIF

Day 4 rapid test negative. Feeling less congested in the head. Mild cough.

Day 3 rapid test is negative. Main symptom is still head congestion.

predictedNO

Seems possible that you do not have covid but will contract it from your husband in the next few days - would that still resolve YES?

@tcheasdfjkl Yes a new infection that shows up on the tests in the 6 days would resolve as YES

Day 2 rapid test is negative. Symptoms yesterday included vomiting, diarrhea, and sinus congestion but not high fever.

1 day would be very quick for a sore throat to appear after being exposed.

When I put up a similar market to this I find the %chance and the resolution unintuitive

@ElliotDavies https://manifold.markets/ElliotDavies/will-i-test-positive-for-covid-on-c?r=RWxsaW90RGF2aWVz