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MANIFOLD
Will Opus 5.5 get nerfed within a week of launch?
23
Ṁ100Ṁ1.1k
resolved Oct 1
Resolved
NO

  • Update 2026-09-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified the evidence required to determine if a nerf has occurred:

    • isitnerfed.org will not be used as the sole source for resolution.

    • Resolution will be based on benchmarks, reports on X, and other reliable, verifiable sources.

  • Update 2026-09-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): To resolve as YES, there must be measurable evidence of a meaningful performance drop from multiple reliable and verifiable sources.

    • Anecdotal claims and noisy benchmarks will not be sufficient to consider the model nerfed.

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@HiSQzSh Do you consider previous Anthropic models to have been nerfed at any point? How did you decide in those cases?

@2b3o4o we’ll use any reliable source, including sites like this, as long as the evidence is trustworthy and verifiable

@HiSQzSh so do you think the linked site is trustworthy and verifiable? right now it shows this, would you conclude that Opus 4.6 is currently in a nerfed state or no?

@2b3o4o basically I'm asking because right now I'm having a hard time imagining what's going to be going through your head when you resolve this. People complain constantly about models being nerfed, but almost never with real evidence. Or the 'evidence' (I think like isitnerfed.org) is basically just noise.

@2b3o4o that site was suggested by a community member, but we’re not confident enough in its reliability to use it as the sole source for resolution

based on the latest available benchmarks, there doesn’t appear to be clear evidence that opus 5.5 has been nerfed yet. we’ll keep monitoring X and other reliable, verifiable sources for further evidence before reaching a conclusion

@2b3o4o that’s a fair point. we’ll rely on measurable evidence from multiple reliable and verifiable sources, not just anecdotal claims or noisy benchmarks

If there’s no clear evidence of a meaningful performance drop, we won’t consider it nerfed

bought Ṁ10 NO

based on what?

@spiderduckpig based on the discussion happening on X around models being potentially nerfed after launch

we’re turning that discussion into a prediction market

@HiSQzSh why not use something like this site https://isitnerfed.org/

@spiderduckpig we’ll use any reliable source, including sites like this, as long as the evidence is trustworthy and verifiable