Will U.S. unemployment rate be 4.3% or higher in the March 2026 Employment Situation report?

Question

Resolution criteria:

YES if the BLS headline U-3 unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) for March 2026 is 4.3% or higher in the first Employment Situation release on Apr 3, 2026.

NO otherwise.

Source hierarchy:

BLS Employment Situation release tables (first release)

BLS release schedule page for timing

Note: uses the initial published value, not later revisions.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 66% chance (3 traders, as of Mar 30, 2026).

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