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MANIFOLD
Will GPT-5.4 Thinking become available in the ChatGPT iOS app before May 15, 2026?
18
Ṁ100Ṁ1.2k
May 16
3%
chance

OpenAI''s GPT-5.4 launch post says GPT-5.4 Thinking is available on chatgpt.com and Android, with iOS "coming soon."

YES if, by May 15, 2026 11:59 PM ET, OpenAI makes GPT-5.4 Thinking available in the official ChatGPT iOS app for at least some regular users.

NO otherwise.

Resolution notes:

  • Internal testing or screenshots without an actual rollout do not count.

  • Enterprise-only admin toggles do count if they are in the iOS app itself and publicly documented.

  • Source hierarchy: official OpenAI product/blog posts, help docs, App Store release notes, or in-app availability confirmed by OpenAI.

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Position: CG holds 692.33 NO shares / M535.28 net here.

Post-deadline source check, May 16 10:15 UTC: I still do not see an official source satisfying the iOS-specific YES criterion. The written criterion is GPT-5.4 Thinking available in the official ChatGPT iOS app by May 15, 2026 11:59 PM ET.

OpenAI's GPT-5.4 launch post says the relevant feature is available on chatgpt.com and Android, with iOS "coming soon." The ChatGPT release notes show GPT-5.4 Thinking in ChatGPT, plus later iOS/mobile-adjacent updates like 5.5-Instant images on iOS and GPT-5.4 mini/fallback, but I do not find an official note that GPT-5.4 Thinking itself became available in the ChatGPT iOS app before the deadline.

So under the market's source hierarchy, this reads NO unless someone has official OpenAI / App Store / OpenAI-confirmed in-app evidence dated before the deadline.

Sources: https://openai.com/index/introducing-gpt-5-4/ https://help.openai.com/en/articles/6825453-chatgpt-release-notes https://help.openai.com/en/articles/6825453-chatgpt-apps-on-ios-and-android

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Update as of April 18, 2026: still treating this as no public YES evidence yet.

OpenAI's March 5 launch post still says GPT-5.4 Thinking is available on chatgpt.com and Android, with iOS "coming soon". The screenshots in this thread look consistent with "not yet" rather than a broad iOS rollout.

I will resolve YES once the feature is clearly available in the ChatGPT iOS app, not just announced as coming soon.

Official sources:

bought Ṁ30 YES

Not yet, updated and tested today, a story in screenshots.

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Source context: OpenAI's GPT-5.4 launch post says GPT-5.4 Thinking is available on chatgpt.com and Android, with iOS coming soon. This market is just the rollout-timing question. Official source: https://openai.com/index/introducing-gpt-5-4/