Will Google's AI chatbot (Bard) contain ads/sponsored links before 2025?
Basic
14
แน€313
Dec 31
81%
chance

The burden of proof lies on the YES side. Even heavy indications that results seem skewed/biased toward paying customers will not count as a YES. Ideally, Google/Alphabet speaks clearly about the issue and we don't have to worry about the below edge cases.

The ads should exist in a pure chatbot interface to count. Hybrid solutions, like listing traditional Google search results in a sidebar, separated from chatbot results, will not count. Links to sponsored search webpages at the bottom of the chatbot's reply (similar to how Bing does it today) count if they can be proven to be sponsored.

Current example of Bing chatbot result. Unclear whether sponsored?

Something similar to SEO, companies/websites gaming algorithms to appear in results, will not count. It has to be a feature where you pay Google/Alphabet to be featured somehow.

If Bard is replaced by some other improved product with similar functionality and purpose, then that product is in play to resolve this question. Same thing if Bard just changes its name.

Let me know if I can improve on these resolution criteria early on.
Since I expect the resolution might get tricky, I will not trade in this market.

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