Resolution criteria

Alireza Arafi was born in 1959, making him currently 66 years old. The market resolves YES if credible news sources confirm his death by March 31, 2026. He is apparently the new supreme leader of the Islamic Republic, or at least a central leader during emergency. There are rumors he was already killed by an airstrike. Resolution sources include major international news outlets (Reuters, AP, BBC, Al Jazeera, CNN) or official Iranian state media announcements. The market resolves NO if no such confirmation is published by the deadline.

Background

Arafi was appointed on March 1, 2026 to a temporary leadership council, whose other two members are President Masoud Pezeshkian and Supreme Court Chief Justice Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei. The council was established after Khamenei's death, triggering a succession process that places the council in charge until the Assembly of Experts selects a new supreme leader. Arafi has been head of Iran's seminaries since 2016, and the Friday Prayer Imam of Qom since 2015.

Considerations

The U.S. and Israel launched coordinated strikes across Iran in early Saturday morning, with the Islamic Republic launching retaliatory strikes across U.S. bases in the Middle East, marking a sharp escalation that raises the risk of a wider regional conflict. Given the ongoing military escalation and regional instability, there is elevated geopolitical risk during this period.

This description was generated by AI.