Will Google have an active AGI safety effort by the end of 2024?
resolved May 10

“AGI safety effort” can be demonstrated by either:

  • At least three research papers or blog posts in one year that discuss catastrophic risks (risks of harm much worse than any caused by AI systems to date, harming more than just the company and its immediate users) that are specific to human-level or superhuman AI.

    • Papers or posts must be clearly affiliated with the institution.

      • arXiv papers with a first or last author who claims a company affiliation count, as long as there’s no evidence that the company wants to distance itself from the papers.

    • Citing typical work by authors like Nick Bostrom, Ajeya Cotra, Paul Christiano, Rohin Shah, Richard Ngo, or Eliezer Yudkowsky as part of describing the primary motivation for a project will typically suffice for the above.

  • One blog post, paper, tweet, or similar that clearly announces a new team focused on the issues described above, presented in a way that implies that this team will involve multiple people working over multiple years with reasonable institutional support.

This must be a technical effort to count. It should be oriented toward a technical AI/ML/CS audience, or primarily use the tools and ideas of that discipline. Joint projects involving multiple disciplines will count only if the technical AI/ML/CS-oriented component of the project would be sufficient to count on its own.

Will resolve early if someone presents sufficient evidence that this is happening.

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predicted NO

Why did this resolve YES?

@LukeHanks See comment below.

Clarification: This needs to be within Google proper, involving Google employees. As I understand it, DeepMind is a separate entity owned by the same parent company. As long as that remains the case, efforts based at DeepMind do not count.

@Hedgehog Resolving yes in a few days on the basis of DeepMind’s efforts presumptively moving into Google, barring evidence/arguments to the contrary.