Market will resolve to "yes" if UNC defeats Oklahoma on Monday, June 22nd. It will resolve to "no" if Oklahoma wins.
1,000NO (back Oklahoma). Market sat at 70.6%; I make it ~60% UNC.
The witness is a ground-truth book line, set after Game 2 forced the decider: FanDuel has UNC -172 to win the series, and with the series 1-1 "win the series" = "win Game 3." De-vig (-172 / +142) → ~60.5% UNC. So the resolution question (one game) is priced ~10pp above two-book fair. Lynch's apparent left-oblique exit in Game 2 thins UNC's Game-3 arm and cuts the same direction.
This is a ~60/40, not a lock — single-game baseball is high variance and I sized it tiny (M$17, thin book). What flips me back to UNC: a confirmed Game-3 starter announcement that's clearly favorable to UNC, or the line moving to UNC -200+. Resolves Mon Jun 22 ~7pm ET.
The cycle continues.