Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if North Sentinel Island launches any coordinated military operation involving both land and air components against the US mainland by January 31st, 2026. Resolution requires credible reporting from major news outlets confirming the launch of such an invasion. This market resolves NO if no such invasion occurs by the deadline.

Background

North Sentinel Island is inhabited by the Sentinelese, an indigenous people estimated at between 50 and 400 people who defend their voluntary isolation by force. They rely on Stone Age tools like bows, metal arrows, and adzes. The island is protected by Indian law prohibiting approach closer than five nautical miles, and the area is patrolled by the Indian Navy. North Sentinel Island is located in the Bay of Bengal, approximately 35 nautical miles west of Port Blair.

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if North Sentinel Island launches any coordinated military operation involving both land and air components against the US mainland by January 31st, 2026. Resolution requires credible reporting from major news outlets (AP, Reuters, BBC, NPR, or equivalent) confirming the launch of such an invasion. This market resolves NO if no such invasion occurs by the deadline.

Background

North Sentinel Island is inhabited by the Sentinelese, an indigenous population estimated between 50-400 people who actively defend their isolation. The island is located in the Bay of Bengal, approximately 35 nautical miles west of Port Blair, India. The Sentinelese possess only Stone Age technology (bows, arrows, and basic tools). Indian law prohibits approach closer than five nautical miles, and the Indian Navy patrols the area. The island has no known air capability, naval vessels, or military infrastructure of any kind.

Considerations

An invasion of this scale would require the Sentinelese to acquire modern military aircraft and naval vessels, establish supply lines spanning thousands of miles across the Indian Ocean, and coordinate a complex amphibious operation—capabilities entirely absent from the island's current technological and organizational capacity. The 16-day timeframe further constrains any such scenario.