Blackpool South by-election: Will the swing to Labour be greater or smaller than Wirral South in 1997?
8
49
260
May 1
55%
chance

The Wirral South by-election in February 1997 was the last by-election of the 1992 - 1997 Parliament and recorded a swing to Labour of 17.3%, the Blackpool South by-election caused by the resignation of Scott Benton following a recall petition being gathered, is likely to be the last by-election of this Parliament, therefore will the swing to Labour in Blackpool South be greater than 17.3% or smaller than 17.3%

Question will resolve as YES if the swing is greater than 17.3% and NO if the swing is lower

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Labour got 38.3% of the vote in 2019, so is it also correct to say that this resolves YES if Labour take >= 55.6% of the vote?

@Noit The result in Blackpool South in 2019 was Con 49.6%, Lab 38.3%, therefore a Conservative majority of 11.3%, the bet will resolve as YES if the Labour majority is greater than 23.3%, NO if the Labour majority is smaller

@HarryHayfield Majority over the conservatives specifically, or whatever party finishes in second place?

I hate swing as a metric because it’s so unhelpful in describing what has happened. Would I be right in saying that in a hypothetical scenario where Labour got 23.4% of the vote and every other candidate came second with 0.1% of the vote each, this would resolve YES even though Labour would have dropped 15 points?