This Market will determine whether OpenAI releases the successor to their currently most capable generative language model GPT-4, likely to be named GPT-5, on or before 1st January 2026.

The public position of OpenAI is that GPT-5 is currently not being trained.

This Market will resolve as YES if OpenAI, or any direct succesor organization to OpenAI, releases a Generative Language model that can be prompted via the ChatGPT public User Interface, or the OpenAI developer API, that uses the same Generative Pre-Trained Transformer archtecture described by GPT-4, and is a technological successor to the current best in class GPT-4 model, characterized by an overall improvement in performance on major benchmarks, and is released under the name GPT-5, on or before January 1st 2026.

This market will resolve as NO If such a model is not publicly released by OpenAI on or before January 1st 2026.

Edge cases:
If the name of the model is not GPT-5, but it acts as a technological successor to GPT-4, the market will resolve as NO.
If OpenAI Announces the existence of GPT-5, but does not publicly release the model for Inference API usage, the market will resolve as NO.
If a model is released that is named GPT-5, but not by OpenAI, the market will resolve as NO.
If OpenAI develops GPT-5 without publicly announcing and releasing it for usage by their Inference API, but its weights are leaked to the public, the market will resolve as NO.

Resolution source shall be the OpenAI Blog: https://openai.com/blog