Will we know why Sam Altman was fired by EOY 2023?
resolved Dec 22

Resolves YES if Sam Altman, a member of the OpenAI board, or a credible journalist publicly gives details about why Altman was removed.

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predicted NO

Hey sorry that I haven't gotten around to this. Going to read the comments and figure out if I need to take some action now.

predicted NO

@Harlan There was a bit of ambiguity here, mostly because I didn't operationalize this market very precisely. But from what I can tell, we have a pretty good idea of what happened at this point, even if we don't know all of the exact details.

predicted NO

@Harlan What journalism motivated the resolution?

predicted NO
predicted NO
predicted NO

@zaperrer I googled something like "why was Sam Altman fired?" and Google gave me this Business Insider article

predicted YES

@Harlan Decent summary!

predicted NO

There was some ambiguity about what "gives details" means, and that's my bad. I thought back to when I was creating this market and tried to do my best to model what past-Harlan meant by that, and I think that he didn't mean "will we be certain about every detail" but more like "will we have a general understanding of what type of things happened." It might be easy to forget that at the time of market creation, it was extremely unclear what had happened, and we are in a very different epistemic state from that now.

predicted YES

I don't really want to rules lawyer here and I'll take my loss without complaint if this resolves against me. That being said, I'm not sure why this market is decaying, since @Harlan hasn't weighed in yet? This could be already a YES and he just hasn't gotten around to it.

Many credible journalists have given details about his removal, quoting several members of the OpenAI board. It's not a very detailed market (which is fine), so could go either way.

4 traders bought Ṁ168 YES
predicted YES

@DanMan314 It’s very weird, especially since at least one of the Why was Sam Altman fired? has already resolved.

sold Ṁ6 of YES
bought Ṁ57 of YES

Pretty sure we already know, or at least know by second hand accounts why he was fired

2 traders bought Ṁ20 YES
predicted NO

@CluelessLoser can you explain it in one sentence?

predicted YES

@GordanKnott Pinned workers against each other and possible manipulation.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

@HarlanStewart could you please comment on what more info you’d need for a YES resolution?

predicted YES

If that market resolves, shouldn’t this one go up? Or is that resolution premature?

bought Ṁ10 YES at 49%
bought Ṁ700 of YES
sold Ṁ50 of YES

@MattCWilson not sure if this counts, they explicitly said she declined to provide details

predicted YES

@Weezing I’m not sure what additional details we need, or expect?

These paragraphs contain a bit of new info, and also corroborate the previous board statement, no?

Altman approached other board members, trying to convince each to fire Toner. Later, some board members swapped notes on their individual discussions with Altman. The group concluded that in one discussion with a board member, Altman left a misleading perception that another member thought Toner should leave, the people said. 

By this point, several of OpenAI’s then-directors already had concerns about Altman’s honesty, people familiar with their thinking said. His efforts to unseat Toner, parts of which were previously reported by the New Yorker, added to what those people said was a series of actions that slowly chipped away at their trust in Altman and led to his unexpected firing on the Friday before Thanksgiving. 

predicted YES

@MattCWilson I guess my question is, if this really is all of the reason, how much more “detail” can there be?

@MattCWilson true, what I meant is that if that older article wasnt enough to resolve this (the one where they say he tried to oust her) then this new one does not add much. But I would say the previous article is sufficient, because it provides details of the firing and maybe this wasnt resolved because no one posted it.

Edit I guess the old one was just a leak and this one is interview with the board member, where she repeated she wasnt hobest butbrefused to provide details.

predicted YES

@Weezing Yeah, that for me is the update - a board member speaking out directly about what happened.

This also increases the odds we’ll hear from other board members.

bought Ṁ35 of NO

@MattCWilson These paragraphs are attributed to “the people said” not from a board member directly so this could just be hearsay. This is from a credible journalist but I haven’t seen other credible journalists referencing/confirming this one, all reporting since this article is that we still don’t know.

2 traders bought Ṁ110 NO
bought Ṁ50 YES from 63% to 65%
bought Ṁ100 of NO

@zaperrer Anybody at the board who has permission to speak publicly about what happened will not have any interest in fueling the flames of this controversy.