On 2024-07-16, the German interior minister Nancy Faeser announced that it is banning the right-wing "Compact" magazine (which contains pro-Putin, anti-Israel and anti-immigration views) for "inciting hatred", freezing their entire funds.
However, the publishing company still has the right to sue against the ban. Prominent politicians such as the centrist FDP member Wolfgang Kubicki have doubts that the interior ministry's actions are legally sound.
Will the interior ministry succeed in banning the magazine? Resolves as false if the magazine wins the lawsuit and releases a new issue. Resolves as true if they lose their lawsuit in all instances or announce that they are cancelling their operations (or if there is no lawsuit at all).
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The Interior Ministry brought more evidence in October. But due to "construction work in the courthouse", the hearing was postponed to June 2025 (https://archive.ph/3hZno).
I personally am leaning towards no, convinced by this article: https://www.lto.de/recht/hintergruende/h/compact-vereinsverbot-pressefreiheit-bmi-faeser-elsaesser-verein-verbot/
I asked the AI Chatbots Claude and GPT-4o: Claude said the probability is 35 percent, GPT-4o predicts 55 percent.
(At least when I asked them, these values might fluctuate a lot when you ask the systems again).