How will Emily Freitag judge her 2024 predictions for U.S. K-12 education?
2
145Ṁ10
resolved Mar 7
Resolved
N/A
The obligation deadline of ESSER III will lead to fierce debates about how to measure the value of education investments, detailed discussions about accounting rules, and some wild spending decisions.
Resolved
N/A
There will be a growing split in reform energy between K–8 and high school — with K–8 focusing more on how to apply evidence of what works, and high school focusing on fundamental purpose and design questions.
Resolved
N/A
Growing “math wars” will include battles over the appropriate role of flashcards in memorizing multiplication facts and even bigger debates about conceptual understanding and fluency.
Resolved
N/A
There will be a window of opportunity and pressure to reauthorize and fully fund IDEA that includes debate about the role of tutoring for students with disabilities.
Resolved
NO
AI solutions that make teacher & leader roles easier and support students in reading, science, & social studies will get wide uptake. Solutions for language translation will excel; solutions for math instruction will lag behind. *

Emily Freitag judged her predictions for 2023 and made new predictions for 2024. I will resolve this question based on how Emily Freitag judges her predictions for 2024.

  • If she judges a prediction correct then I will resolve it YES.

  • If she judges a prediction incorrect then I will resolve it NO.

  • If she judges a prediction somewhat correct/incorrect then I will resolve it to some percent based on my best interpretation of her judgment. FYI, I'm currently anchoring at 50%, but I could resolve to any percent.

  • If I can't use her judgements, then I may try to use my own best judgement. I may not be able to use her judgements if she doesn't make them, they are inaccessible to me, or they are corrupt in a manner that grossly undermines the truth-seeking spirit of this question. My own best judgment will attempt to reward those who were correct at the expense of those who were incorrect. If I'm not confident I can achieve that, then I will resolve N/A.

I will not bet on this question.

* I shortened prediction 2 to fit Manifold's character limit. The following is the full prediction.

AI solutions that make the teacher and leader roles easier and support students in reading, science, and social studies will get widespread uptake. Solutions that support language translation will particularly excel; solutions for math instruction will lag behind.

Please feel free to suggest improvements or ask for clarification, preferably before placing bets. Get my attention by @-mentioning me. Please stay on topic, be sincere, and de-escalate conflict. Put your mana where your mouth is, but don’t bet more than you’re willing to lose.

  • Update 2025-03-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Update from creator

    • No Bet Predictions: Predictions that nobody bet on will be resolved as N/A.

    • Remaining Prediction: The one remaining prediction will be resolved using the creator's best judgment.

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