Will Russia control Chasiv Yar on september 1st 2024
Basic
25
4.2k
Sep 1
28%
chance

Will Russia control the small city Chasiv Yar west of Bakhmut autumn 2024?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chasiv_Yar

Resolves yes if Chasiv Yar is marked as under russian control by deepstate map on september 1st 2024, or if deepstate map is unavailable, credible media sources report Chasiv Yar as being under Russian control.

https://deepstatemap.live/en"#12/48.5870/37.8337

Note that the question pertains to september 1st 2024 specifically. If Chasiv Yar is captured by Russia and then recaptured by Ukraine by september 1st 2024, it resolves no.

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:

@HakonEgsetHarnes Does this mean that all city boundaries have to be marked under Russian control and not disputed? Just noting because Bakhmut invasion results were complicated due to some small outskirts being held by Ukranian troops long after it was declared controlled by Russia.

@Shifbru I'm not going to be very strict here, I would say Bakhmut was under Russian control when Ukraine still held on to some outskirts. Chasiv Yar is a fair bit smaller than Bakhmut as well, so I think it's less likely to be a borderline case. It's not enough for it to be in the grayzone though, central Chasiv Yar should be marked as occupied on deepstate map.

Roughly this area:

@HakonEgsetHarnes ok thanks for clarifying. Though note that city boundaries can be a bit different than how they appear on the map so worth to clarify :). While not always acurate, here are the city boundaries as detailed on Google maps.

@Shifbru Thanks for the map! Again, I'm not going to be super strict. If there is some discussion I'll likely defer to credible newsreports (NYT, WSJ, BBC, Reuters), but my general idea is that they should clearly be in control of the central part, and have control of most of the surrounding areas. I've done a crude marking on your map, with red being required firmly under their control, orange being "firmly in control of at least 50% of it", and green being optional. But this is mostly my gut feeling, and I'm open to being convinced otherwise.

I'm not sure what tactical positions are actually important in and around Chasiv Yar. It might be that a small part of the town or the surroundings gives you outsized leverage over the area. But then again, if that were the case I would suspect the central part to be contested.

@HakonEgsetHarnes Cool thanks :)