Vanucchi et al. (2015) suggest that the Tunguska event (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tunguska_event) was caused by a "Verneshot" rather than a meteor air burst. Verneshots are a speculative geologic phenomenon proposed by Morgan et al. (2004) in which large explosions are caused by the rapid release of lithospheric gas.

This market will resolve yes if by Dec. 31, 2035 at least one paper is published in either Science or the Nature family of journals that supports the hypothesis that the Tunguska event was caused by a Verneshot.

Paper links:

• Vanucchi et al. (2015): https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012821X14006827

• Morgan et al. (2004): https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012821X03006022