Resolution criteria

This market resolves to the single option that accurately reflects the partisan composition of the U.S. Senate Democratic caucus and Senator John Fetterman's party affiliation/caucus status as of the specified evaluation date (e.g., following certification and convening of the relevant Congress; the market creator should specify the exact target election cycle or cutoff date).

• Dems get 51, Fetterman switches: Resolves YES if the Democratic caucus holds exactly 51 seats (including independents who caucus with Democrats) and John Fetterman officially changes his voter registration to Republican/Independent and/or ceases caucusing with Senate Democrats.

• Dems get 51, Fetterman does not switch: Resolves YES if the Democratic caucus holds exactly 51 seats (including independents who caucus with Democrats) and John Fetterman remains an official member of the Democratic Party and caucuses with Senate Democrats.

• Dems get 52 or more: Resolves YES if the Democratic caucus (including independents caucusing with Democrats) holds 52 or more total seats.

• Dems get 50 or fewer: Resolves YES if the Democratic caucus (including independents caucusing with Democrats) holds 50 or fewer total seats.

Official results will be determined using the official U.S. Senate directory and roll call data available at Senate.gov alongside official party caucus announcements.

Background

Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) was elected to the U.S. Senate in 2022. While elected as a Democrat, his public stances on border enforcement, energy policy, and foreign policy have occasionally led to political speculation regarding his caucus loyalty. Independent senators who formally caucus with Democrats (such as Bernie Sanders and Angus King) are traditionally counted toward the Democratic caucus majority numbers.

Note for creator: Specify the exact election cycle (e.g., the 2024 Senate elections convening in January 2025) or date cutoff to remove ambiguity about the timeframe being evaluated.

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