Will I attend Manifest 2023?
8
closes Oct 1
92%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Amount
Ṁ0
Ṁ50
Ṁ100
Payout if YES
Ṁ10 +9%
New probability
92%
Will I, Gustavo Lacerda, attend Manifold's inaugural forecasting conference, or at least enter the venue while the conference is in session?
About me:
have a ticket, paid $0 for it
passionate about forecasting (Metaculus employee)
currently live in Asheville, NC
pretty tired of traveling, as of Aug 31st
committed to arriving in California by October 1st (near Bishop, >5 hours away from Berkeley)
Get Ṁ500 play money
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