When will this market warn me of something I'd pay $1000 to learn half an hour before everyone else? Nuclear war, barbarians inbound to Germany, ISPs shut off the internet to delay AI takeover, and so on.
Get notified when it's happening!
If it's happening but "Get mana!" isn't your first priority, I'm sure some sort of accolade can be arranged if you warn us anyway.
If you put M$10 on "June 23" and say "Microsoft is about to double." without evidence and then this happens, that doesn't count, because I wouldn't believe you.
If you put M$1000 on "June 23" and I go on twitter and everyone's screaming about the nuclear missiles, that counts.
If you put M$10000 on "June 23" and say "A gremlin is about to steal your $2000 bill.", I wouldn't believe you but I would pick up my $2000 bill. If I then find that this saved it, that would count!
At a glance, this would have resolved "negatively" for the last 20 years.
If this were Nov 9th 1989, proof that Schabowski just accidentally said on the radio "The Berlin Wall is open, effective immediately." would have counted, since I would have paid $1000 on the spot to learn that. Even though, by the next day, I would have regretted that - neither of us would have known at the time that the opportunity would remain.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ140 | |
| 2 | Ṁ23 | |
| 3 | Ṁ21 | |
| 4 | Ṁ19 | |
| 5 | Ṁ13 |
@Rwin The event has to be something he would consider it worth paying $1000 to have advance knowledge of, not just any information. In some sense, it's irrational to bet on this market until the payout is 100k mana because you could arbitrage by selling it for $1000 and then buying mana.
@Mira Oh damn that's not what I was expecting 😔 But the event would have been interesting! But I'm not sure enough and the event is not critical enough to be worth 1000 bucks just to know about it 3 days earlier 😃
@Mira Some opportunities get bigger when shared! Such as those in the first paragraph of the description.
@Gurkenglas I can't really think of an opportunity that would get bigger by sharing it in this market instead of publicly :D I mean if there was a nuclear war in 30 minutes I would probably not go to Manifold first :D