Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, on or before December 31, 2029 (11:59 PM UTC), a proof of the Twin Prime Conjecture is published in a peer-reviewed mathematics journal of high standing (such as Annals of Mathematics, Journal of the American Mathematical Society, Acta Mathematica, or Inventiones Mathematicae), or is otherwise widely accepted as valid by the global mathematical community (e.g., acknowledged by the International Mathematical Union or reported as verified by Quanta Magazine).

If no such proof has been peer-reviewed and accepted by the cutoff date, or if any announced proof remains unverified or is shown to contain a fatal flaw as of December 31, 2029, this market will resolve to NO.

Unpublished preprints (including uploads to arXiv) that have not been formally peer-reviewed and widely accepted by the mathematical community prior to the cutoff will not suffice for a YES resolution.

Background

The Twin Prime Conjecture is one of the oldest open problems in number theory. It asserts that there are infinitely many pairs of prime numbers that differ by exactly 2 (such as 3 and 5, or 11 and 13).

While the conjecture remains unproven, major progress was made starting in 2013 when Yitang Zhang proved that there are infinitely many pairs of primes with a gap of at most 70 million. Through subsequent work by James Maynard, Terence Tao, and the collaborative Polymath Project, this upper bound on prime gaps was reduced to 246. However, closing the gap from 246 to 2 is widely believed to require fundamentally new mathematical techniques. While attempted proofs occasionally appear on preprint servers, none have yet achieved consensus or peer-reviewed acceptance.

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