Will the Us Crypto reserve be hacked or mysteriously disappear before January 20 2029

It’s just been announced that gold reserves may be converted to crypto reserves, cyber defense against Russia has been spun down, will the crypto reserve disappear before the next president is sworn in?

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves to YES if the U.S. Crypto Reserve (Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and U.S. Digital Asset Stockpile) is confirmed to have been hacked with assets stolen or if the reserve mysteriously disappears (assets cannot be accounted for) before January 20, 2029. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.

Background

On March 6, 2025, President Trump issued an executive order establishing the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and U.S. Digital Asset Stockpile. This initiative aims to centralize and manage digital assets seized by law enforcement. According to official statements, the reserve is intended to be maintained securely as a store of reserve assets and not sold.

While there have been discussions about potentially converting some traditional gold reserves to cryptocurrency holdings, no official confirmation of such plans has been announced.

Considerations

• Cybersecurity concerns are valid for any digital asset repository, especially one of national significance

• The market covers both deliberate hacking (with theft of assets) and unexplained disappearance of the reserves

• Minor security incidents that don't result in loss of assets would not trigger a YES resolution

• The timeframe extends until the presidential inauguration day in January 2029