Will Biden have to step down from his current (or any future) Presidential role due to health reasons? | Manifold

Will Biden have to step down from his current (or any future) Presidential role due to health reasons?

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This includes his current Presidential term and any future one he may win.

Resolves YES if he has serious health concerns and needs to step down permanently from being President. This also includes death (which is a pretty serious health concern), otherwise resolves NO. Also resolves NO if he does not win a second term and has served all of his first.

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#🇺🇸 US Politics

#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election

#2024 US Election

#Future US Presidents

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Do not resolve this market before Inauguration Day. (I say this against my own interests!)

@PatrickLV I wonder how long before inauguration something has to happen for the VP to get sworn in. Presumably if Biden gets a heart attack at 11:59 on inauguration day they'll just skip her and inaugurate Trump, but how far back does it go? Ten minutes? One day? Three?

@PatrickLV I will resolve this when Biden is no longer President, and based on how it happened, did step down before inauguration day for health reasons or if it goes to plan and Trump becomes President.

bought Ṁ50 NO

This is currently assuming something like an 80% chance of him having to step down if he wins reelection. it's aso much higher than Harris's odds of being president in other markets.

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