Will the shape of Starship's flaps have obvious visual changes for IFT5?
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แน€100k
resolved Oct 13
Resolved
NO

Will Spacex change the external shape of any of Starship's flaps in a way that is obvious?

Resolves No if they reinforce them internally and add more thermal protection, or make minor modifications.

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Next one should have the new flaps I believe

Looks very similar, but I won't resolve until it launches

Is this a new shape?

Will they launch this next?

Close date extended

@chrisjbillington Uh, apologies, I mistakenly thought the creator was inactive. @GordanKnott you can do what you like, don't take my reopening as an indicator otherwise if you were planning on resolving.

What do we think?

For me the shape looks the same

Ya pretty sure they're the same in every meaningful way. For shape anyway. But I hold No so ยฏโ \โ _โ (โ ใƒ„โ )โ _โ /โ ยฏ

They've added additional tiles, but that's not a shape change, imo it falls under "adding more thermal protection"

bought แน€3,000 NO

I don't see any differences.

https://ringwatchers.com/article/s30-tps

bought แน€500 NO from 15% to 14%

It remains to be seen whether this design flies on IFT5...

What if the flap shape doesn't change but the joint covers do?

What if they move them?

@Daniel_MC I think this should resolve YES

I think this should resolve NO, if the external shape of the flaps doesn't change, merely their location

@JoshuaWilkes this market is only about the shape, not the position or orientation. Resolves yes only if the shape of the flaps are obviously different on the IFT5 Starship.

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