Will the shape of Starship's flaps have obvious visual changes for IFT5?
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Sep 15
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Will Spacex change the external shape of any of Starship's flaps in a way that is obvious?

Resolves No if they reinforce them internally and add more thermal protection, or make minor modifications.

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What do we think?

For me the shape looks the same

Ya pretty sure they're the same in every meaningful way. For shape anyway. But I hold No so ¯⁠\⁠_⁠(⁠ツ⁠)⁠_⁠/⁠¯

They've added additional tiles, but that's not a shape change, imo it falls under "adding more thermal protection"

bought Ṁ3,000 NO

I don't see any differences.

https://ringwatchers.com/article/s30-tps

bought Ṁ500 NO from 15% to 14%

It remains to be seen whether this design flies on IFT5...

What if the flap shape doesn't change but the joint covers do?

What if they move them?

@Daniel_MC I think this should resolve YES

I think this should resolve NO, if the external shape of the flaps doesn't change, merely their location

@JoshuaWilkes this market is only about the shape, not the position or orientation. Resolves yes only if the shape of the flaps are obviously different on the IFT5 Starship.