Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI files a registration statement (such as Form S-1) with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for an initial public offering (IPO) or a direct listing on or before September 30, 2025. The filing must be publicly accessible on the SEC's EDGAR database (https://www.sec.gov/edgar/search/). If no such filing is made by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No."

Background

OpenAI, founded in 2015, has evolved from a non-profit organization to a "capped" for-profit model to attract investment while maintaining its mission. In recent years, OpenAI has secured significant funding, including a $6.6 billion round in October 2024, valuing the company at $157 billion. (forgeglobal.com) Microsoft, a major investor, has invested over $13 billion in OpenAI since 2019. (reuters.com) As of May 2025, OpenAI and Microsoft are renegotiating their partnership to facilitate OpenAI's potential IPO while ensuring Microsoft's continued access to OpenAI's AI technologies. (ft.com)

Considerations

While OpenAI has not publicly announced a definitive timeline for an IPO or direct listing, ongoing negotiations and restructuring efforts indicate a potential move toward public offering. However, the complexity of OpenAI's corporate structure and the need to balance investor interests with its mission may influence the timing and feasibility of such a filing.