Background China has announced plans to land taikonauts (Chinese astronauts) on the moon by 2030. The mission will involve two launches using the Long March 10 rocket to place two taikonauts on the lunar surface for approximately six hours. Key components currently in development include the Mengzhou crew spacecraft, the Lanyue lunar lander, and specialized lunar landing suits. The China Manned Space Agency (CMSA) has already unveiled the design of the lunar spacesuit.

Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if at least one Chinese taikonaut physically sets foot on the lunar surface before 11:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2030. The market will resolve NO if:

• No Chinese taikonaut reaches the lunar surface by the deadline

• The mission is aborted or fails

• Only robotic/unmanned missions are completed

Considerations

• This would mark only the second nation to achieve a crewed moon landing after the United States

• While China has demonstrated significant progress in their space program, including successful Mars and lunar rover missions, they have not yet conducted a crewed mission beyond low Earth orbit

• Technical challenges, budget constraints, or geopolitical factors could potentially impact the timeline

• The mission's success will depend on the completion and integration of several complex systems currently under development