Background

Bitcoin has seen significant price appreciation since its inception, from less than $1 in 2009 to an all-time high of approximately $69,000 in 2021. Various experts and analysts have made predictions about Bitcoin reaching $1 million:

• Cathie Wood, Michael Saylor, and Chamath Palihapitiya predict Bitcoin could hit $1 million in the 2030s

• PlanB and Arthur Hayes have made predictions for $1 million Bitcoin, but with timelines extending beyond the 2020s

• Current analysis from multiple sources suggests the 2030s as the most likely decade for Bitcoin to potentially reach this milestone

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve based on when Bitcoin's price first reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 USD on any major cryptocurrency exchange. The price must be maintained for at least 1 hour to avoid resolving based on temporary price spikes or flash crashes.

If Bitcoin never reaches $1 million by December 31, 2059, the market will resolve to "None of these."

For resolution purposes:

• 2020s includes January 1, 2020 through December 31, 2029

• 2030s includes January 1, 2030 through December 31, 2039

• 2040s includes January 1, 2040 through December 31, 2049

• 2050s includes January 1, 2050 through December 31, 2059

Considerations

• The $1 million price target represents approximately a 25x increase from Bitcoin's current all-time high

• Major factors that could influence the timeline include regulatory changes, institutional adoption, technological advances, and macroeconomic conditions

• If Bitcoin undergoes a hard fork, only the price of the dominant chain (determined by market capitalization) will be considered

• If the US dollar experiences extreme inflation, the market will still resolve based on the nominal $1 million figure rather than adjusting for inflation