Will Trump lose the Republican primary?
45
Ṁ5.3KṀ700
2024
15%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Amount
Ṁ0
Ṁ50
Ṁ100
Payout if YES
Ṁ64 +547.1%
New probability
16% +0.9%
Get Ṁ500 play money
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belikewaterbought Ṁ100 of YES
@Gigacasting Request for clarification: If Trump were to withdraw from the race, would this question resolve as Yes?
belikewaterbought Ṁ10 of YES
I'm going to assume this resolves as "No" if he isn't on the ballot in the primary and doesn't win as a write-in, either.
N/A if Trump does not run; or announces day one he’s not running as a Republican.
Anything else has clean YES/NO, even if he later changes parties or concedes etc.
Tjaden Hesspredicts YES
@Gigacasting So is to fair to say that, given Trump announces candidacy for the Rep. primary, this market resolves No if Trump wins the primary and Yes otherwise?
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