Will SBF be on the lam for most of 2023?

650Ṁ9727

resolved Nov 3

Resolved

ALL

Do Kwon. Su Zhu. Et tu, SBF?

Resolves YES if disappears (whether under indictment, investigation, or otherwise no-showing the bankruptcy hearings or any other major events); PROB in close cases; NO if captured, in attendance, or generally locatable.

FTX

Sam Bankman-Fried Trial (1st)

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Even if he escapes custody today and disappears for the next 2 months, that won't be most of 2023. Resolving No.

predictedNO 2y

Will this resolve early in July if he hasn’t been on the lam at all for the first 51% of the year?

Doesn’t workout, can’t read: probably wouldn’t enjoy prison too much

predictedYES 2y

He will be a lot less "effective" in prison most likely, so yes right (- the prob that they can catch him)

SBF is already under supervision: https://cointelegraph.com/news/sam-bankman-fried-is-under-supervision-in-bahamas-looking-to-flee-to-dubai

@Ophelia Oops.

@GeorgeVii On a break so not up to date haha. Will stop betting till I'm at a laptop again I think. Lol

this is a very funny outcome so i'm betting yes

I guess I should hedge the jail stuff somewhat here

I sold all the jail stuff, on the lam ftw

Will SBF be on the lam for most of 2023?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

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What is this?

What is Manifold?

Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.

Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.

Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.

Are our predictions accurate?

Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

Why use play money?

Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.

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