Will more than 31% of positions be YES?
42
361
830
resolved May 25
Resolved
YES

At close.

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bought Ṁ100 of YES

[Admin] Delisting this market, as it's a non-predictive market per our community guidelines

predicted NO

the market is in an all time high, making it a pretty good time to defect

@SavioMak That would need 10 people to defect which seems like a pretty tall order in the absence of mana bribes even if the payoff looks good for the first few. An alternative suggestion might be:

Will some Yes holders cash in most of their profits so their position isn't destroyed if things change such that there looks like a decent chance and payoff from switching. Makes it safer for them and the price movement caused makes it less susceptible to a switch.

bought Ṁ5 of NO

@ChristopherRandles I've found that Giga's markets tend to get those kind of shenanigans, and often the profit opportunity is in banking and switching teams unless things get too weighted in one direction early

@Stralor Being too weighted in one direction late on is likely more decisive? Opinions may vary as to what is too weighted but 18 6 when only >31% needed requiring over half the yes positions to defect seems that way to me.

predicted NO

@ChristopherRandles yep, it'd definitely take a swing now. but all it takes for the YESers at this point is to cash out their position, and spend a portion of their profit on the outside chance of NO. safe with big upsides. giga themselves has bought back and forth a few times. there's still a day!

predicted NO

@Stralor and you're right, late is when the decision is made. I'm mostly talking about the past few of these I've seen. the ones that blew all the way to one edge early got locked in, and the ones that danced around before the end usually had some upset