Will this paper: “ Transformative AGI by 2043 is <1% likely” be disproven or severely held in doubt before 2025
52
1kṀ3237
Dec 31
35%
chance

Paper: https://arxiv.org/abs/2306.02519

For this market to resolve as YES, t

hree things has to happened.

1)A paper disproving this is posted

2)The paper has to be generally credited more than the above paper.

3)This has to happen before 2024, Dec 31

Otherwise this market resolves to NO.

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