Will Boston, Massachusetts (BOS) report greater than average snowfall at the conclusion of the 2023-24 winter?
18
383
310
resolved Apr 5
Resolved
NO

Will resolve to YES if the cumulative snowfall recorded at Boston’s Logan International Airport from 01 September 2023 to 31 March 2024 is greater than the average seasonal snowfall of 43.5 inches, as claimed by The Weather Channel. Boston’s cumulative, snowfall, totals, in turn, will be extracted or derived from the National Weather Service at the link below at the end of the period.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=CLI&issuedby=BOS

https://weather.com/news/news/new-england-boston-record-snow-tracker

(03/31/2024) Resolved to “NO,” since the official reported snowfall from 01 September 2023 to 31 March 2024 at Logan International Airport (BOS) is 9.7”.

Get Ṁ200 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ244
2Ṁ94
3Ṁ66
4Ṁ23
5Ṁ15
Sort by:
bought Ṁ10 of YES

As of October 4, 2023, it is uncertain whether iPhone sales in 2023 will exceed sales in 2022. However, there are several factors that could influence the outcome.

Factors that could lead to increased sales in 2023:

  • The release of new iPhone models: Apple is expected to release new iPhone models in September 2023. If these models are well-received by consumers, they could boost sales in the second half of the year.

  • Strong demand for Apple products: Apple has a strong track record of innovation and its products are generally well-received by consumers. This suggests that there is likely to be continued demand for iPhones in 2023.

  • Economic conditions: The global economy is currently facing several challenges, including inflation and rising interest rates. However, if the economy continues to recover, this could lead to increased consumer spending, which could benefit iPhone sales.

Factors that could lead to decreased sales in 2023:

  • Increased competition: The smartphone market is becoming increasingly competitive, with new players such as Huawei and Xiaomi gaining market share. This could put pressure on iPhone sales.

  • Economic slowdown: If the global economy enters a recession, this could lead to decreased consumer spending, which could hurt iPhone sales.

  • Supply chain disruptions: The global supply chain is currently facing a number of disruptions, including the war in Ukraine and the COVID-19 pandemic. These disruptions could make it difficult for Apple to produce enough iPhones to meet demand.

Overall, it is too early to say for sure whether iPhone sales in 2023 will exceed sales in 2022. The outcome will depend on a number of factors, including the release of new iPhone models, demand for Apple products, economic conditions, competition, and supply chain disruptions.

predicted NO

Was this intended for a different thread @MarisolElizalde ?

predicted NO

Additional information provided in the description.

Yes, I think it will because all the weather predictions are saying that it will be so it will be so lets see..

bought Ṁ10 of YES

According to boston25news Boston saw slightly north of a foot of snow during the 2022-2023 winter season, but in 2023-2024, AccuWeather predicts 38-44 inches of snowfall for the city with a storm possibly forming as early as November.

Thanks for that, @SaraKuqja. Being a meteorologist I am particularly interested in the outcome!

@GeorgeModica That’s so funny! I just came back from visiting my uncle in MA who works in geography and meteorology.

@SaraKuqja Agreed with your initial approach. It is also likely that this particular winter will be hotter and wetter than what people expect. This will happen since El Nino has returned this time of the year for the first time in the last four years, which will influence the upcoming winter season in 2023-2024 (U.S Winter Outlook, 2023). As a consequence, temperatures will rise above-average in the northern parts of the continental United sates (Figure 1). Warmer temperatures in a coastal region like Boston could bring more snowfall due to the increase in the precipitations with 40-50% (Figure 2).

In addition to the first input provided by the subject, it is relevant to add that snow precipitation is quite hard to predict due to the number of factors that can be involved including the specific characteristics of the El Nino event. Finally, looking at the historical data (Figure 3) of snowfall in Boston area, it can be inferred that snowfall is a climate indicator that fluctuates per year, which makes it hard to predict, but based on the previous arguments, it is more likely that in the following 2 years (2023-2024), it will increase more than the 42.91 inches. Refer to submit for figures.

Teefey, S. (2023, October 19). U.S. Winter Outlook: Wetter South, warmer North. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/us-winter-outlook-wetter-south-warmer-north

Extreme Weather Watch. (2023). Most Yearly Snow in Boston History. www.extremeweatherwatch.com. https://www.extremeweatherwatch.com/cities/boston/most-yearly-snow

Thank you @em25242 for your thoughtful--and well-referenced!--reply. My thought is that one impact of El Nino (specifically, your Fig. 1) will be to weaken the meridional (i.e., north-south) temperature gradient over North America (NA) and as a consequence weaken the NA polar jet stream from which extratropical cyclones derive their energy. Therefore, this winter I would expect fewer strong extratropical cyclones (aka, winter storms) that tend to be responsible for much of Boston's winter snowfall in any given year.

@SaraKuqja I agree with your analysis and my answer is also YES. For the 2023-24 winter, Massachusetts, including Boston, is expected to experience a snowier winter compared to the relatively mild 2022-23 season. This prediction is based on the potential presence of an El Niño climate pattern, which has not been observed in the past four years. The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center forecasts up to a 40% chance of higher-than-normal precipitation for Massachusetts, including Boston. Additionally, the region is predicted to have a warmer-than-normal winter, with up to a 50% chance of above-average temperatures. AccuWeather's outlook also suggests a strong El Niño could bring multiple nor'easters to Massachusetts in January and February, potentially resulting in more than triple the snowfall experienced during the 2022-23 winter. Normal snowfall for Massachusetts is around 50 inches, but only about 11.5 inches were recorded last winter, one of the least snowy on record​​​​​​. MA Winter Snow Outlook For 2023-24 Winter: NOAA Predictions | Across Massachusetts, MA Patch

Is it intentional that this closes so soon?

Hi Sundry, and thx for your question. This was my first foray into Manifold and I arguably could have selected a longer period. Will remember that for next time!

@GeorgeModica No worries at all! I noticed it was your first time and I thought the question was interesting, which is why I commented. Welcome! :) You can still edit the close date on this one, btw.