Will Iran respond to Israel’s latest strike with more force than their first attack?

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resolved Nov 14

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If Iran responds with weaker force this market resolves as no. If they respond with more this market responds as yes. If by 6mo after this market was created there is no conclusive evidence of any overt retaliation it will resolve as no.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#️ Wars

#🇮🇱 Israel

#🇮🇱🇵🇸 Israel-Hamas Conflict

#Geopolitics

#Iran

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I thought "Israel's latest strike" would refer specifically to the latest strike at the time of market creation. Seems like people are interpreting it to mean the most recent strike at time of betting?

bought Ṁ500 NO

How does this resolve if Iran does not respond by market close @GensingGenis?

@chrisjbillington Updated description and timeline

@GensingGenis In that case you should extend the close date until six months after market creation.

I'd also say that explicitly planning for an NA resolution is generally frowned upon, and NA resolutions will become more difficult after next month, likely not permitted for new markets, and I'm not sure about existing markets like this one.

@chrisjbillington Good point if there’s no reaction after 6mo it will resolve as no

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