Resolves to Yes if Manifold prohibits users from
Creating an identical market by copying the market description of another market OR
Creating a similar market that uses highly similar wordings as the market description of another market
before the end of 2023.
Otherwise resolves to No.
The rule has to been written in the community guideline to count towards the resolution. A comment by a Manifold employee on some market or Discord do no suffice.
Related questions
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ33 | |
| 2 | Ṁ5 | |
| 3 | Ṁ3 | |
| 4 | Ṁ2 |
⚠Inactive Creator
📢Resolved to NO
It is in the Community Guidelines : Running a market, that they would get no Subsidy if "Market is an exact, or close to exact, duplicate of an existing market." But they are not under any rules against creation.
One idea: Duplicate markets are allowed, but they don't get unique trader bonuses. That way people aren't incentivized to copy markets just to get bonuses, but they can still do it if there's another reason like not trusting the original creator.
Problem: There's no clear boundary between duplicates and non-duplicates. (e.g. changing the close date by 1 minute is still a duplicate, changing it by 5 years is probably not.) So there'd need to either be mods making fiat judgements, or a community poll system where users vote on whether a given market is similar enough to another to be considered a duplicate.
I think the most interesting case is when the duplicate market is exactly the same, except for resolver's reputation. Like Isaac's market below. I imagine more people will want to trade on Isaac's market because they trust Isaac more (he has 10x as many markets and has been on Manifold for 10x longer). One one hand this is good, because it leads to more accurate predictions. But on the other hand it's unfair that Gene came up with the idea for this market, but Isaac gets to collect most of the unique trader bonuses.
Maybe there needs to be some kind of royalties system where some of the trader bonuses of the duplicate market go to the original market's creator?
@Yev I would support something like a split of new trader bonuses between them. Maybe 2 parts to the resolver and 1 part to the original creator?
@LivInTheLookingGlass What if the new market creator can choose any split they want, but the split ratio is public? Maybe there will be enough social pressure to keep the split fair?
@IsaacKing I assumed that people would mostly do this as misresolution insurance, and trader bonus farming was just an unfortunate side effect. But the 600k markets were created specifically to farm bonuses.
@IsaacKing AmmonLam demonstrated that even people who usually create good markets will try to farm bonuses.
@LivInTheLookingGlass disclosure: I personally find it convenient to copy other people's market and create a new one (often for a different time frame), but recognize that some market creators might feel that their intellectual property rights are being violated in those situations (especially for markets in which the market description has been carefully crafted to avoid ambiguity or to provider relevant information)
It's helpful to gauge manifold communities' sentiment towards this issue by creating this market.
I agree, being able to duplicate markets and make slight modifications is very useful, but I think it would be good for the original author should get a) credit, and b) a share of the author bonuses. Of course, things get fuzzier when you make a market that's heavily based on another person's market but with substantial changes.