If the shutdown ends after hours, applies to the next trading day as an increase from prior close -> end of day. Examples:
If the shutdown ends at 2pm on Nov 12, market is based on the change between the closing price of SPX for that day, and the closing price of the SPX Nov 11
If the shutdown ends at 8pm on Nov 12, market is based on the change between the closing price of SPX on Nov 13, and the closing price of the SPX Nov 12
If the shutdown ends after hours Friday or on a weekend, resolves to the change between Monday close and Friday close.
Likewise for trading holidays, uses next trading day vs previous trading day
Update 2025-11-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will not resolve based on trading that occurs in anticipation of the shutdown ending. Resolution will be based on the actual official end date of the shutdown, as specified in the original criteria, even if market movements occur earlier due to expectations that the shutdown will end.
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@Cactus yea I don’t think we need to wait until we see the real sp500 settlements lol, not going to be close
Limit up at 15%
Well, I realise that the shutdown may not strictly end today, though it seems clear most of the market response is already occurring. In future, I would reword to better address the “spirit” of what I was asking.
I’m not going to resolve based on today’s trading, despite that being, in my opinion, primarily a result of the new information that the shutdown is going to end. We will wait for the actual end date.