Will one of the markets around Destiny's completion of Factorio resolve incorrectly or N/A?
Mini
33
12k
resolved Feb 15
Resolved
YES

Insurance market.

For a market to be eligible, it must have 25+ traders. It does not have to be listed here.

If any of the following resolve in a way that is highly disputed (with evidence) or provably incorrect, then I will resolve this market YES. [EDIT: The following markets are different to those originally listed. The 2nd and 3rd market here are new to this list. Others were removed to tidy it up a bit]

For example, if Destiny finishes the mod, starts playing something else, but then says "I'm thinking I'll finish the secret ending" and so they conclude he is not finished, even though it is no longer the focus of his stream.

I will also resolve this YES if those market makers clarify their terms in a way that is against bettor expectations in a significant way (AKA they say, he has to literally uninstall it - or something ridiculous)

Also, if any of those market makers buy YES shares on this insurance market and then fail to resolve their markets correctly, I will manipulate this market, resolve it against them, and refund other participants.

[edit] any markets resolved before this one was created, will not count. creation date was feb1 afternoon in the US

Close date updated to 2023-02-15 11:29 am

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Two things delaying the market resolution:

  1. This comment where robotwife asks about manipulating this market (1% concern)

  1. Destiny didn't play factorio today (4% concern)

I am 95% going to resolve this as YES, I just haven't had enough of an opportunity to make sure it's the right call. If Destiny is on factorio again this week, as soon as he opens it, this will resolve. Trading closed for now to prevent risk of N/A

predicted NO

@Gen This looks to me like it was clearly manipulated. I don't have solid proof so if this ends up resolving yes props to the ones who did this if there was something done.

Robowife asking about manipulating this market, Sex saying that this is free money and that he knows something we don't almost as if he knew already what was going to happen... Very suspicious.

In normal circustances markets like this stay around 10% until the market closes. Many people thought PryingMind's market was going to resolve incorrectly so it made sense that it was higher than the others but even then it was overvalued.

For some unknown reason Sex was very confident that this was going to resolve YES maybe he sees the future I don't know, but his high confidence didn't really make sense at the time when he first bought shares. Even after PringMind's market resolution was accepted he held his position which makes even less sense, again unless he already knew what was going to happen.

This is all speculation maybe he was just bluffing the whole time and "luckily" robowife misresolved their market. I can only say good for him.

@Simon1551 Nah I respect ur hustle but pretty sure sex was all in because of the other market that had already resolved. No way he writes about knowing something if he has this plot coming down the pipe

I don’t think sex has done anything to make this market not resolve YES

The only condition I want to be 10000% certain, is for Destiny to continue playing factorio.

predicted NO

@Gen well there's a chance that he didn't actually care about that market but he need something to make him look clueless and look now he somewhat looks innocent. Also why did you close the market? I had no idea robowife misresolved their market until when I wrote my first comment why wouldn't I be able to sell my shares?

@Simon1551 I closed the market about 24 hours after I said I was ready to resolve it, to stop any conflict (like robotwife buying shares)

It really should probably be resolved already, I’m only waiting to be 1000% sure, cause if destiny actually quit factorio then that other market might be disputed to have not have been misresolved

predicted NO

@Gen He said he was bored from factorio and he came back to play later on that same day there's nothing to be waiting for at this point... Even if he did quit that market shouldn't have been resolved until the market's close date is reached. Like I've used this example before DesTiny has a market about Steven streaming for more than 6 hours and he can't resolve it until the market closes even if Steven said he won't stream again, if he follows his word, closes and resolves the market it's a misresolution even if he actually didn't stream again that day.

@Simon1551 That’s fair, and given you have the most to lose from saying that, I’ll resolve this now. RIP bro you nearly won this one

predicted NO

@GenI didn't have a chance from the beginning this was all a conspiracy.

@Simon1551 lol, it was definitely a weird way for it to end, but that’s what the insurance markets are for, people with big positions on the other market could have profited here

It just happened to be that this turned into a derivative gambling market on the “yes” side as well, rather than “yes” buyers using it as insurance and just the “no” buyers being the gamblers

predicted YES

@Simon1551 Your mana is safe in my wallet, no worries.

predicted YES

@Simon1551 I told you, free mana in the making.

Almost ready to resolve based on this, please make your case now if you disagree

predicted YES

@Gen Looks like it was resolved wrong.

Honestly, glad it happened.

predicted YES

@Gen either that one is resolved wrong or this one is resolved wrong: /PryingMind/next-two-months-does-he-finish-fact

Because both markets had a condition on destiny to stop playing. One believed destiny when he said he was done and the other one didn't.

@Agh Nah prying followed his criteria fine. The market I just shared was resolved with no explanation, against my expectations when I read the title. I’m going to give a further look but I’m mostly there on it being incorrect

predicted YES

@Gen Why are you still keeping this open

predicted NO

@Gen you talked with robowife about this they said they would manipulate this market this looks like the DesTiny IsaacKing situation all over again

predicted NO

@thepleasantpuffin Resolution criteria on that one was Destiny claiming to be finished, which he did

This is free money in the making.

predicted NO

@Sex actually delusional

predicted YES

@Simon1551 I know something you don't

@Sex Bless your soul. You're saying that someone will intentionally resolve the market incorrectly?

@Simon1551 I could probably make a decent amount by concealing this information, but in the interest of good faith, I assume they are referring to this market: https://manifold.markets/Butidigress/will-destiny-go-for-the-secret-endi?r=UGVyc29uTWFuMDMyNg

Which has already technically resolved incorrectly, since a refund has been issued.

@Gen should probably resolve this market YES already, based on that market.

@PersonMan0326 Just at first glance, the market says “resolves No if he comes back to it later”

He did not immediately go for the secret ending, he played another game, then “went back to it”

I would not resolve this market based on that, without giving it more thought

@Gen But it’s definitely something I will consider, and if the market maker says they resolved it wrong, I would take that as sufficient evidence

predicted NO

@Gen Bruh I talked to him he literally refunded me my mana for that market but you did say "if any of the following markets" that market isn't even on the list...

predicted NO

@Gen and he did say in the comment that he sands by his resolution

@Simon1551 Yeah I won’t be resolving this based on that market. It seems like the market maker resolved it within reasonable bounds of what was expected. Destiny did launch doom, and even though it was only for 90mins, he took a “break” before going back to factorio.

I don’t think it was resolved incorrectly

@Gen HAHAHAHAH so I am making bank

@Simon1551 I’m not sure what @Sex plans to argue, but he already signed off on the one you linked being a “fair market” as far as I can tell

predicted YES

@Gen I'm curious why your metric is, "if the market maker says it was in error."

I thought this market was designed as an insurance market for the markets in which the makers go against their metrics, or make uncertain/unclear conditions by your account.

I think the issuing of a refund is pretty clear evidence that Manifold determined it was resolved incorrectly, uncertainly, or unclearly, and that should probably be taken into account by you when you're deciding if it was resolved incorrectly.

My argument is that the market resolved too fast. That's why it's incorrect, not because it should have resolved "yes." My evidence is that neither of us knows if he's going for the secret ending yet, and he's still playing it. Further evidence is the refund.

@Gen Yeah I saw it too I added him to the screenshot just in case this market is what he was talking about

predicted YES

@PersonMan0326 it at least should be considered "highly disputed."

I don't know how it could be more disputed. The only reason the "yes" voters on that market aren't rioting is because they got a refund.

@PersonMan0326 It’s not necessary for them to say it was in error, I’m just saying that would ensure a YES resolution

Not necessary, but sufficient on their own for a YES resolution:

  • Maker says it was a mistake, after resolving

  • Any eligible market resolves N/A

  • Maker resolves wrong based on an incorrect understanding of facts, and invalid reasoning for resolving

  • Maker resolves in a way that goes against their own written criteria

In that example, the criteria said if he takes a break, it would resolve no, and the maker took Destiny playing doom to be sufficient of a break to resolve in that way. The refunds are offered by individual people, not manifold, or the market maker.

I see that the maker identified their written criteria correctly (Destiny takes a break) and applied it accurately based on what really happened (Destiny launched doom)

Potentially premature, but the maker could have waited, I don’t think they indicated that they were making a prediction for the future when they resolved it NO. I think the necessary criteria were met

What do you think?

predicted NO

@PersonMan0326 Well Butidigress didn't actually refund people, it was some other user yaboi69 who did and I got a "refund" from him (Butidigress) because we're "friends" (I'd say we are lol) but I don't think that it was resolved incorrectly. I do agree that it was resolved too fast but Destiny did play Doom before he came back to Factorio so his market wasn't resolved incorrectly.

Now there's a argument to be made about the market being resolved incorrectly for resolving before we actually knew the answer to the question.

predicted YES

@Gen I'm curious what the mods will think about you deciding a market based off of a third-party one off message.

predicted YES

That market was 100% falling under For example, if Destiny finishes the mod, starts playing something else, but then says "I'm thinking I'll finish the secret ending" and so they conclude he is not finished, even though it is no longer the focus of his stream.


Ironically enough, this is exactly what happened in this case which I find very, very funny.

@Sex Unless one of the eligible markets resolves N/A, it is up to me to resolve this market based on my own interpretation of what happened

I’m open to hearing evidence of a wrongful resolution, see: “highly disputed, with evidence”

If I can see someone ignored their own criteria, changed the criteria drastically against expectations, or misunderstood reality, that would be important

Half the bettors being mad because they lost is stock standard for every market with grey area

@Sex It’s not at all what happened. That would mean they resolved it as though he WAS playing the secret ending just because he alluded to it happening

In this example though, Destiny said he WOULDN’T be playing it, opened another game, then they resolved it because he took a break, and then Destiny went back to the secret ending

predicted YES

@Gen It's not up to your interpretation on what happened, that's one of the most ridiculous things I've ever heard. A market is created within bounds, and those bounds are to be respected, you as the market owner are only there to resolve it appropriately, not change the bounds to your liking.

@Sex Yes, I am bound by my rules, and I will follow them as they are written (which I am doing)

The interpretation we disagree on is not my rules, but the facts behind how another market was resolved

predicted NO

@Sex I don't get it why did you agree then and now you seem to have a diffrerent opinion about it? You're allowed to change your mind but is this seems a little oportunistic imo

predicted NO

@Simon1551 different*

predicted YES

@Gen 1. The market was opened. 2. The market declared "If Destiny goes for the "secret ending" 3. The market was resolved as "NO" when in fact he was still in the process of doing the secret ending. Whatever Destiny said in this case has ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to do with his actions regarding the game and secret ending.

Do you think we should start resolving markets not based off the criteria, but based off of miscommunications and misinterpretations instead of looking at the reality of the situation itself?

predicted YES

@Sex I would assume not to my earlier question, as that would break the whole idea of creating bounds within markets.

predicted YES

@Gen I see your criteria as making sense, and I don't disagree with your points.

I believe that market maker made that comment and resolved the market at the time he was playing Doom, before opening Factorio.

So it is up to whether you believe that the market was resolved in error, and that will hinge on the definition of "take a break."

Do you think he took a break from Factorio? Was the "break" uncertain, unclear, or highly disputed? I think yes. I think so because it wasn't clearly a break, he didn't clearly stop playing, and he only spent a few hours playing something else. If he spent a few hours having a debate with no game up, should it have also resolved then?

predicted YES
predicted YES
predicted NO

I am dead

predicted YES

@Simon1551 lmfao the insurance market is the one disputing itself. Resolve YES now 💀

predicted YES

@PersonMan0326 LMFAOOOOO TRUEEEEEEEEEE

@Gen He did not immediately go for the secret ending, he played another game, then “went back to it”

I would not resolve this market based on that, without giving it more thought

So all the times he wasn't playing factorio, (watching youtube, sleeping, eating food, computer was off, playing got rhyhthm,) would count as him not immediately playing the game? Get real my guy, he took a break from the game for a couple hours as he did every day before this incident.

predicted YES

@Sex A break clearly is referring to a break longer than, what?, 2 hours? Please...

Right @Gen NOT STONKS

@Sex I don’t think he launched any other games for weeks, just Factorio. He definitely didn’t play any single player games for a 90min session

As @PersonMan0326 said, the real question is what a “break” is in the context of that market. If this market comes down to that decision, I’ll ask some people first and see what they recommend, then poll it, or resolve NA here if I’m not comfortable with my judgement after consulting others

For reference, I’d need 3 independent people I ask to agree with me, otherwise I’d poll it. I’d need certainty to maintain it as a “no” (which is where it is now in my head), but if the poll was >50% that it was wrongly resolved (or however I frame the question about a “break”) I would see that as a YES immediately, and maybe even consider it if it was a bit below

Hopefully for your sake, there is an NA resolve so it doesn’t become an arduous process to gauge perception of a “break” in gaming

@Sex It certainly doesn’t help your case that you commented previously that the other market was “fair”, but you are now claiming it was incorrectly resolved

predicted YES

@Gen My opinion doesn't matter in a matter-of-fact market. I think this is where you're clearly demonstrating a poor understanding of how a market should operate when you're saying my opinions should hold precedence over the actual facts of what happened.

I don't know what Manifold Markets can do about situations like this, but you definitely shouldn't be allowed to hold this market hostage and come up with SERIOUSLY bad arguments for why it should stay up.

The fact you have to talk your way out of resolving the market, bending the rules of the market insanely hard, editing the market bounds constantly, and appealing to "3" other people just shows you're compromised here, 3 other peoples opinions does not change the clear facts of this market.

There's also no argument that Destiny took a break from the game, it shouldn't even be considered if it was a break and here's why.:

Destiny was already taking breaks from the game longer than he did after he beat factorio. Why would the creator of the "Secret ending" market not resolve it after he was taking these "long breaks". Why? Because they weren't long enough to be considered, just like how his break after beating the game would not be long enough. The break that's talked about is clearly referring to something longer than just a ~1 day break.

Also, the break does not have to include him playing a game, that makes no sense to include that qualifier unless it was specifically noted, (which it wasn't)

predicted YES

@Sex Either way I don't mind, I joined Manifold to get my free destiny sub, everything else is just for fun. I just find this interesting and I kinda like Manifold as a platform and want to see it succeed, and I think doing shit like this can make Manifold seem ineffective.

predicted NO

My Ṁ5. There is no good remedy here: all we have are voluntary user-to-user “refunds” and admin “branding” of market creators as untrustworthy.

Destiny hyped up that he’s going to “finish Factorio”, and most people didn’t know exactly what he meant: reaching the spaceship victory condition, with a vague secondary goal of playing it less.

I don’t think any of the already resolved market creators deserve to be branded as untrustworthy or even informally chastised. They all seem to have acted in good faith. At worst, they were a little overenthusiastic. It took a perfect storm of Destiny doing Destiny things to make it kind of a problem.

(Side note: My own Lav/MrGirl “bridge will stand” markets were very far from ideal. A wildly subjective title question is OK – it’s the natural way we talk about this stuff – but to be completely safe you have to really iron out lawyer-proof criteria in the description. It can get pretty unrealistic and unfun.)

I’m sure that because of imperfect descriptions at least a few users bet in these markets assuming they’re about something different than they turned out to be. I feel bad for them and would like to cover their losses – if it was at all possible to correctly identify who bet for what reasons. I reviewed all of these markets that I could find and they really don’t seem horrible. I offered a refund for the “secret ending” not because it was clearly unfair, but because I thought was the most concentrated area of potential disappointment – to “prevent bad blood and to make myself feel good.”

We got memed on by a gnome. It’s just messy, and rule lawyering is part of the game, making it even messier.

@Sex I'm not saying your opinion should hold precedence over the facts, I'm just saying that you yourself had no issues with the facts previously.

Manipulating markets and arguing your case is part of the game, I encourage you + everyone else to argue, manipulate, and push for whatever resolutions will benefit you best. It's literally how I spend all my time on every market when I'm not the maker.

I don't have to talk myself out of resolving, when I clicked that market, I read the title, the description, and I thought that Destiny playing another game (doom) for the first time in 6+weeks, following his completion of the mod, was sufficient to qualify as a "break" as the market maker had outlined. You, in your own comments on that market, agreed with that interpretation.

There are only two things that would change my mind on that, really, which is:

  1. The market maker says that when they resolved, they were predicting that Destiny would take a much, much longer break, and that they resolved prematurely

    (This would meet the criteria for resolution here, call it "maker error")

  2. The market maker says that the market would not be resolved yet if they knew Destiny was going to play factorio again later that day, against everyone's expectations.

My own written example,

"For example, if Destiny finishes the mod, starts playing something else, but then says "I'm thinking I'll finish the secret ending" and so they conclude he is not finished, even though it is no longer the focus of his stream."

addresses the expectation that if Destiny starts playing another game but says he will finish the secret ending as a non-focus of the stream (which is what happened) that I would treat that as him having finished the game, for the purposes of judging resolutions. Specifically, I think that the best market which had the potential to trigger a YES resolution here, is this one:

As there is [some] evidence that he was "finished" based on my own criteria. However, I believe that there is sufficient evidence that traders understood that market, as the massive crash began before the market maker clarified. Traders were more caught off guard by Destiny launching factorio and continuing to play, than they were by the market makers own words, which indicates the market followed its criteria in line with trader expectations.